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One for the History Books

One for the History Books

Houses of Parliament with Fireworks behind

No denying it’s been quite the week, what with the British monarchy rocked to its foundations and the British government scraping through the mother of all near misses. But as the immediate hullabaloo settles down the underlying sense of near crisis shows no sign of going away. As our Political Correspondent Peter Spencer reports, the huge question of how much we’re all going to have to shell out to keep UK PLC afloat still hangs over us.

To most observers the very worst sort of hooray Henry, ex-Prince Andrew’s now on his last hooray, stripped of all his unearned trappings, up to and including the fancy mansion.

Good riddance and a whole lot more, say the family of his high-profile alleged victim, the woman so traumatised by all that’s happened in her life that she decided to end it.

Not that Andrew’s the first to fall so spectacularly from grace, bearing in mind that the murderous tyrant Henry the Eighth pulled the royal rug from under both his daughters.

Funny how things turn out, as they made it to the throne anyway. And while the older ended up with the nickname Bloody Mary her half-sister Elizabeth remains one of our most prized national treasures.

Talk of the nation’s treasures, or lack of, brings us neatly on to Chancellor Rachel Reeves, and her near impossible choices in the budget later this month.

Given the pot’s paltry state she’s certain to make a lot of enemies come the day, and far from teasing out best choices she’s having to settle for least worst.

That said, her own ministerial prospects did look to be hanging by a thread for most of last week, thanks to an unpaid charge for letting out her home in South London, following her move to Number Eleven.

It now looks pretty clear that it was all down to a cockup by the estate agents, rather than any naughtiness on her part, or her husband’s.

Nonetheless, while the Tory papers were licking their lips at the prospect of scalping her, Keir Starmer was gruesomely aware of the stakes.

Sticking with the history theme, to have got rid of her at this juncture would have been like sacking King Henry the Fifth on the eve of the battle of Agincourt. Not a good move.

Reeves does however look just as up against it as plucky prince Hal and his band of brothers.

Her massive tax-raising budget of last year was billed as a one-off. A surefire way of putting us back on track after fourteen years of Tory mismanagement.

Except that the spurt of economic growth that was going to follow and see us through failed to materialise. Consequence being she’s back now for a whole lot more. With a whole lot of very awkward explaining to do.

Having tried chipping away at edges, via things like cutting oldies’ winter fuel allowance or reducing benefits for disabled people, all she got was enough egg on her face to build a battlefield-sized omelette.

So it seems instead she’s thinking the unthinkable about those pre-election promises not to raise income tax, VAT or National Insurance on employees.

This moved from hunch to racing certainty at Prime Minister’s Question Time last week, when the Tory Leader stepped out of character and actually managed to nail it.

Though she got a definitive reiteration of the pledge not to go there back in July, this time all Starmer could manage was a shapeless blob of a non-answer. Job done then, sorted.

Speculation over the last few months has spawned enough column inches to fell half the world’s forests. But the emerging consensus is that it isn’t so much a matter of Reeves having little choice, more that she’s got none whatever.

Not like the government’s got much to lose. According to YouGov Labour’s as unpopular as it’s ever been in the last quarter of a century. Down there with the Tories, who’re looking dead in the water.

But interestingly, while Nigel Farage’s party is miles out in front, the Greens are now only one point behind the reds and the blues.

Bearing in mind Reform’s somewhat unexpected defeat in that Welsh by-election last month, Labour’s nurturing vague hopes that tactical voting might yet come to their rescue.

The point being that Farage’s hardline stance on immigration strikes many voters as deeply repulsive. Which does open a window for the anybody-but-him ticket. A space to watch.

Meanwhile, Downing Street’s still stuck with its budget battles and the home truths that no mainstream party dares to share with the voters.

One, as former Tory Chancellor Jeremy Hunt rightly pointed out, we in Britain are relatively lightly taxed next to many European countries. And comparable services will cost more.

Two, with an ageing population, to put on its head that song so beloved of Tony Blair, things can only get worse.

Back in the swinging sixties men would be pushing up the daisies barely a couple of years after they hung up their clogs. Now average life expectancy is something over eighty.

So with another fifteen years or so of pensions and healthcare to pay for, the sums do themselves.

Now factor in America’s 2008 gift to the world, the global economic crisis, followed by the next Conservative government’s widely judged to have been unnecessarily harsh austerity programme.

Then Brexit, which dug what few economists would dispute was a pretty deep hole in the nation’s pocket. And, finally, Covid, to which then Tory Chancellor Rishi Sunak responded with the furlough scheme. Wise, but expensive.

Scroll forward to the here and now. And one senior Treasury official was heard to murmur last week: ‘In government you have to play the cards you’re dealt.’

History doesn’t relate the exact tone of voice deployed. Stoical? Resigned? Spitting-nails furious?

Still, food for thought for voters minded to plump for Reform on the basis that they can’t be more rubbish than the others. Hard to see, in the current climate, how they can be much better either.

Then again, sometimes hard choices do simply have to be faced.

Like when, a few weeks back, a dozen stray cows wandered onto the railway line near Neath in Wales. The best and easiest way to get them out of the way was to shepherd them along the platform.

Given they they looked to the world as if they were there to catch a train there was much hilarity.

Perhaps less of it a few days ago when another non-human rocked up on the tracks at Scotland’s busiest railway station during rush hour.

Cue major delays, cancellations, and doubtless very rude words uttered by inconvenienced passengers.

That said, there was something heart-melting about the picture published by Network Rail of what it termed: ‘The culprit.’ A puzzled and somewhat anxious-looking swan.

Also rather sweet the way staff took such care to ease the bird out of harm’s way, instead of just shooing it off with pointed sticks or whatever.

Likewise the company’s next announcement, posted on X: ‘Good news, the swan has been moved and is now safely away from the railway. It’s a little distressed, but recovering well.’

Admit it, that’s seriously cute.

Watch Peter’s report at peterspencer.org


Peter Spencer has 40 years experience as a Political Correspondent in Westminster, working with London Broadcasting and Sky News. For more of his fascinating musings on the turbulent political landscape, follow him on Facebook & Twitter.

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