Everyone knew what was going to happen. Nigel Farage would be returned at last week’s by-election as MP for Clacton. And the second it was over the parliamentary sleaze watchdog would be on his case again. With dramatic heatwave-related scenarios unfolding elsewhere it’s easy to get distracted. But, as our Political Correspondent Peter Spencer reports, the unfolding saga over the Reform leader’s strikingly well-lined pockets has long-term implications for all of us.
Until not so long ago Farage was looking in with a good chance of becoming our Prime Minister in a couple of years. Now, with his personal rating plummeting, this has changed.
And if mistrust in his honesty takes hold we could yet return to the old order of Labour versus Tories.
As for what happened in Clacton, smiley Nige increased his vote share. But joke rival Count Binface did manage nearly a third of his tally. Unheard of for a novelty candidate.
What that tells us is that even in this most Brexity neck of the woods there’s a solid wedge of people who don’t like the cut of his jib.
If that translates into a broader sense of disillusion across the country then it’s farewell Farage. End of.
Already opinion polls are putting Labour ahead of Reform for the first time since smiley Andy made it to Number Ten. And if his bounce sticks there’ll be lots of talk about an early general election.
Meantime, another contest in Clacton is very much on the cards.
Having paused their investigation into Farage’s finances after he stood down, the parliamentary authorities will now get back to checking up on the five-million smackers given him by a crypto-finance chum.
They’re also interested in the gifts in kind from his other mate, the convicted fraudster nicknamed Posh George.
He insists it’s all totally above board and he had no need to mention any of it to anyone. But the mere fact it’s being looked into suggests it isn’t necessarily that simple.
Of course Farage reckons it’s all part of a fiendish plot by ‘the establishment’, whoever that is, and his win last week was a fab V-sign at the lot of them.
But if he is forced later to go through it all again the other main parties will pile in, and at that point he genuinely will have his back against the wall. Interesting times.
Not that any of this is to suggest our new Prime Minister’s having an easy ride. Not least because events over the last few days have fitted neatly into the Reform narrative.
The image of an anything but small boat chugging across The Channel with well over two hundred asylum seekers on it was pretty striking.
And, try as the government might to explain that such crossing have practically halved in the last couple of years, the old saying about a picture being worth a thousand words does come into play here.
Then there’s Burham’s plan for folk awaiting their asylum application outcomes to be shifted away from hotels, which are regular hotspots for often violent protests, and into disused military sites.
Sounds like a good idea, except that these empty barracks tend to be near villages, meaning that’s another ruck in the making. With local Labour MPs kicking off just as much as those from other parties.
Newbie Andy’s also getting a lot of grief over the potential early release of two of the guys responsible for the death of the young copper PC Andrew Harper.
His bind is that they were done for manslaughter, not murder. And if he kept everyone convicted of this marginally lesser offence behind bars for longer then jails would simply run out of space.
In the face of a massive public outcry, including a letter of protest from all Britain’s police chiefs and an ever-growing petition, Burnham’s promised to get it sorted. Exactly how remains to be seen.
What is obvious though is the depressing backdrop.
For decades the Tories and Labour were in a sort of bidding war over who could sound tougher on crime. As a result we bang up a higher proportion of people than almost anywhere else in western Europe.
Naturally enough the last, Conservative-led, government spotted the problem. But got no further than bringing in their own early release scheme. Their bad. Burnham’s headache.
Easy enough for Farage to grab a grubby headline by promising to fly all foreign jailbirds off to places like El Salvador.
The reality is that crims there face routine beatings, torture and enforced disappearances. Little wonder Trump got away with this policy, but here in Blighty it really isn’t a runner.
But if all that isn’t enough, Andy Burnham’s also up against the heatwaves headache. He’s already had to call an emergency meeting of top dudes but they can’t just wave a magic wand to end all wildfires.
Nor can they prevent trains derailing, possibly thanks to the tracks buckling through intense and prolonged heat.
Fascinating to note how strangely silent the usual chorus of climate change deniers seems suddenly to have become. Yet another dilemma for Burnham as he mulls over North Sea oil drilling.
All in all what he’s up against calls to mind a famous quote from one-time Tory Prime Minister Harold MacMillan.
Asked what was the greatest challenge for a statesman, he replied in his trademark suave and casual manner: ‘Events, dear boy, events.’
Still, at least our Andy’s on the front foot when it comes to reaching out to ordinary punters. He’s spending most of this month tramping up and down the country simply listening to them.
And here another well-remembered line from another former PM slots into place. This one from Tony Blair: ‘Most people, most of the time, don’t give politics a first thought all day long.’
He wasn’t being patronising, just stating an obvious truth. Forget shenanigans in Westminster, folk are too busy with the ever-present nags and snags in their own lives.
So, the money-saving guru Martin Lewis’s advice to the incoming team was to find a hundred small things that make people angry (he put it more colourfully than that) and try and sort them.
And Burnham’s on the case, big time. His hope being he’ll get voters to believe he really in on a mission to help them solve the sort of problems that they actually can get their heads round.
The friend in need. In the nick of time. Certainly worked, in extremis, for a tiny kitten who’d somehow got trapped inside the grille of a car queuing at a drive-through coffee shop in Central Iowa.
It quickly became obvious that the only way to save the poor little thing from practically frying to death was to dismantle the front of the car. Pronto.
Staff called a local tow company and fifteen minutes later the guys had done just that. Next stop a nearby animal shelter, where the sweet creature recovered from the trauma and charmed everyone.
And now she’s being officially adopted by Jordan McKnight, one of the tow truck blokes who set her free.
Seems a fair exchange. He saved her life, she stole his heart. Everybody happy.
Watch Peter’s report at peterspencer.org
Peter Spencer has 40 years experience as a Political Correspondent in Westminster, working with London Broadcasting and Sky News. For more of his fascinating musings on the turbulent political landscape, follow him on Facebook & Twitter.