Almost wherever you look, things aren’t going to plan. Far from setting the world to rights at his party’s big Birmingham bash, Reform leader Nigel Farage is so far on the back foot that he’s practically toppling over. At the same time, far from running the country as an always here Prime Minister, Andy Burnham’s being forced to look overseas. While the by-election to replace his predecessor is looking tricky every which way.
After whizzing up and up like a great big beautiful balloon, Reform’s got a slow puncture. Or, rather, a fair few of them.
And any hopes that they could snatch enough headlines at their yearly get-together to rub out the stains of the past few months have been well and truly dashed.
Must be maddening for Farage, as he’d clearly given a lot of thought to his planned relaunch.
With all the stats on legal and illegal immigration showing there’s markedly less of it these days, he was going to wow us all with his new plans. To slash taxes and welfare spending.
Fat chance. Headlines are instead awash with yet more sleaze allegations, the new lot feeling distinctly of a piece with those that’ve been sloshing around for months.
Thursday’s Channel Four exposé showed two of Farage’s top bods seemingly getting a US company to pay for polls on the party’s behalf.
It’s got Knacker of the Yard poking around for potential lawbreaking. And the aides in question got the boot pronto, even though Farage insists there’s nothing to see here.
The parliamentary authorities, meanwhile, are back on his case regarding the five million smackers gifted to him some time ago by a Thai-based billionaire.
And eyebrows remain raised regarding other benefits in kind that’ve been welcomed with open arms from more well-heeled well-wishers.
It’s not true to say Farage has morphed overnight from hero to zero, but his personal popularity has taken a huge hit, alongside Burham’s surging forward. Easing Labour into pole position. Just.
Also absolutely not true to say, however, that our new Prime Minister’s looking at calm waters ahead. In fact, across the ocean, they’re anything but.
This thanks to the Argentinian President huffing and puffing anew about the British-owned Falkland islands.
Last time these guys got all argy-bargy the then Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher sent out a task force and saw them off.
Some may remember the infamous ‘Gotcha’ headline in the Sun newspaper, as it celebrated the sinking of Argentinian battleship the General Belgrano.
Unfortunate choice of word as it turned out, as the encounter killed hundreds of young Argentinian sailors. Plus, it later transpired, the cruiser was in fact sailing away from the conflict zone.
But no such considerations count this time round, for two reasons.
The first is that, while the Americans did lend a discreet hand on that occasion, we’re out of luck with the current Prez.
It seems the so-called Orange Manbaby – some go so far as to refer to him as the Mango Mussolini – isn’t minded to forgive us for not joining in his Iranian adventure.
So this time his side’s siding with the other side. Meaning we’re on our own. And this brings us on to the second consideration.
The decision to go to war was chancy enough back in Thatcher’s time. Now it’s looking a lot closer to an impossibility.
In those days the peace dividend stemming from the Ruskies suddenly starting to be nice hadn’t really kicked in. Unlike now, with our armed forces practically pared to the bone.
Double whammy for Andy Burnham, that. What to actually do about the threat from Argentina. And, over time, how to neutralise the renewed Russian threat.
Here again we’ve got our former chums Stateside breathing down our necks on two fronts.
First, the Donald’s not too fussed about his country’s historic role as the West’s friendly bobby on the beat. And second, his little punch up with the Iranians makes it harder for us to fill the gap.
Point of fact, a whole lot harder for the Chancellor John Healey to make any of his sums add in time for next month’s budget.
Though he quit his earlier role as Defence Secretary in protest at the last Chancellor not being being prepared to shell out enough for the armed forces, the boot’s now on the other foot.
And passionate though Healey still is on the subject he’s finding out the hard way just how knotty the problem is.
Bad enough anyway what with weird stuff going on in the mysterious home of the money gods known as the bond markets.
These are the deities who decided Liz Truss’s oopsie-daisy mini-budget back in 2022 was a fail, and effectively got her the sack.
Seems they’re flexing their muscles again. And though this is anything but Burnham’s bad it sure is his problem, as government borrowing costs have now soared to a near thirty-year high.
This could all too quickly trickle down to interest rate hikes and costlier mortgages. So much for his promises to make day-to-day living easier for all of us.
And what’s behind all this? You guessed it, the jolly old barney in Iran, which has choked off shipping movement in the Strait of Hormuz and thus whacked up the price of oil and gas and what-not.
None of this detracts from Burnham’s longer-term aspiration to reverse the UK’s decline over the last half-century.
In his big speech to the commons last week he laid the blame for that on a combination of Thatcher’s hollowing out the industrial north. And Brexit.
This certainly gives him and the Tory leader something to talk about. As well as a clue to his plans for the nation’s direction of travel under his premiership.
But he has his own backyard to keep an eye on too. Not only him, but also the leader of the Green Party, Zack Polanski.
Having had a few weeks to think about things, our last PM’s decided to be Outta Here Keir, meaning a by-election beckons in his old patch of Holborn and St Pancras.
This has long been a safe-ish Labour seat, but is also potentially vulnerable to a challenge from Polanski. Then again, the ever so democratic Greens are a bit given to factionalism.
So it’s possible the local lot might opt for someone else to bat for them. Someone perhaps who’s bigger on their backing for the Palestinian cause.
If that were to happen it wouldn’t leave Polanski in the same pickle as Nigel Farage is in just now. But it certainly would be egg on his face.
Wouldn’t do a lot for morale either in the red corner if Zany Zack or maybe someone of a different shade of green were to win the contest.
Of course colours are a funny old thing at the best of times. To mash up the bard, from Romeo and Juliet: ‘What’s in a colour? That which we call a colour by any other name would smell as sweet.’
Last word though must go to the late lamented Dolly Parton.
‘I’m not offended by all the dumb blonde jokes because I know I’m not dumb – and I’m not blonde either.’
There, now we know.
Watch Peter’s report at peterspencer.org
Peter Spencer has 40 years experience as a Political Correspondent in Westminster, working with London Broadcasting and Sky News. For more of his fascinating musings on the turbulent political landscape, follow him on Facebook & Twitter.