Party conferences don’t normally add up to a hill of beans. But the Labour Pary Conference getting under way now in Liverpool is different. Partly because it gives our new Prime Minister his first chance to get the fans onside, and partly because the latest mega-poll gives them a reason to do as they’re told. As our Political Correspondent Peter Spencer reports, it’s been a long time coming.
For the past year the spectre of Nigel Farage’s Reform Party forming the next government has hung over Labour like the Grim Reaper’s scythe.
So in spite of the last election’s big win their MPs have been jumpy and disobedient. More loose confederation of warring tribes than serious fighting force.
Hence, in large measure, Keir Starmer’s endless succession of U-turns and eventual demise.
Burnham’s matey manner and rather nice eyebrows had given a bit of a boost in the polls, but only a little one. With Farage still managing his yappy-snappy little dog at their heels bit.
But now it looks as though the mounting tide of sleaze allegations, everything from whopping gifts and other perhaps questionable revenue sources and vested interests, is finally catching up on him.
The proof lies in an extra special YouGov survey that came out midway through last week. These things are only cobbled together now and then, and they’re very different from ordinary ones.
Not only are they much much larger, they also draw on a range of statistical info that present a picture that’s a lot more authoritative than what we get on a weekly basis.
The last time one such was conducted, a year ago, it showed Farage in with a very good chance of getting the keys to Number Ten.
This one, by contrast, put him anything but.
Instead, Labour would be way out front. But still eighty-five seats short of an overall majority. Which suggests three things.
One, they could only form a government if they cobbled together a messy coalition with the Lib Dems and the Greens, and possibly others.
Two, if they’re even going to get that far they’ll have to learn to behave themselves.
And three, from now on Burham’s going to have to box extremely clever – and be pretty lucky. For luck in this instance read that great mass of external stuff that he really can’t control.
The biggest is almost certainly spelt T R U M P.
With the US mid-term elections looming closer than ever, the Prez looks to his critics on both sides of The Pond more and more deranged.
This largely thanks to his ongoing war in the Middle East, that’s digging ever deeper holes in Yankee pockets and his popularity.
Which is why it struck many observers that when Burnham got to meet him at the United Nations last week he was up against a spoilt little brat with, unfortunately, a hand grenade stuffed in his nappy.
In the event, far from telling him he didn’t like the cut of his jib, The Donald gave him a thumbs up.
A tactical if not necessarily strategic victory for Andy, however, bearing in mind that Starmer got the same treatment in public, only to find out later that the Prez had torn him to shreds in private.
As for the one awkward bit, Trump demanding we Brits rethink the Chagos Islands deal and Burnham saying we would, there are two schools of thought.
Right wing newspapers over here maintain that this represented a pathetic volte-face by our Prime Minister, up there with the worst of Starmer’s.
Then there’s notion that a matador doing a mighty hip-swivel to dodge a charging bull isn’t being weedy at all.
In reality, unlike his predecessor who was forever fixated with legal niceties, Burnham’s far more interested in what the folk back home think about things.
And, let’s get real here, how many of us even know where the Chagos Islands are? Let alone care about the niceties of an arrangement designed to safeguard a US airbase there.
OK we’ll tweak it, said the Defence Secretary, confident that it’ll take forever and hardly anyone will understand the difference anyway.
A very different matter when it comes to reforms to the British welfare system.
With the potentially make-or-break budget now only weeks away the Chancellor’s got no choice but to cut spending – or hike taxes. Neither of which will be exactly an easy sell, to put it mildly.
Take the government’s aim to ease back on the money shelled out to people on benefits, which would have the added bonus of getting more youngsters off their couches and into work.
Downing Street’s special target is the Personal Independence Payment, claimed by more and more people on the grounds of mental health problems.
A report coming out soon will stress that some conditions really are pretty serious, but others shouldn’t be any bar to getting a job. Essentially it’s a matter of degree.
Nearly all Labour MPs do agree that the system needs sorting. But over half of them have bigger numbers of folk on the PIP payment in their patch than their own majorities of votes.
And more than a hundred of them are in the same bind regarding punters getting state aid on the back of mental health conditions.
So their attitude is, to say the least, nuanced. And if all this sounds familiar that’s because it is.
Time and again Starmer announced plans to cut this or that – oldies’ winter fuel allowance is the standout – only to have to cave in to opposition from his own side.
Clearly, Burnham’s got to reprogramme his MPs’ mindset. Because if he can’t untangle pinch-points like this he’ll be as stumped as Starmer.
But here at least he has the definite edge on no-longer-here-Keir.
As well as being a much more persuasive talker he plans to be around a lot more of the time. Plus he’ll go big on charm offensives, actually inviting dissidents into Number Ten and ladling out the booze and schmooze.
And keeping ’em sweet’s got a lot going for it. Not just MPs or people in general, but even our feathered friends, apparently.
Doctor Jorg Massen, who’s based at Utrecht Uni in the Netherlands has wondered for years if when they’re swooping around sometimes it’s just for fun.
So he finally found a way to put it to the test.
On certain days a group of cockatoos at a local bird park were given the choice of staying put or taking to the air.
He also taught them an elaborate system of colour-coded cups with tasty and not so tasty food in them, to figure out how cheery they were feeling.
If they were upbeat they made a point of going for the ones with delicious walnuts in them, and if not they’d settle for the boring old sunflower seeds.
And, hey presto, those that had opted for the skies always went for the treats. And they raised their crests more often, which also looked like a good sign.
Sorted then. As far as far as Jorg’s concerned, up up and away is a thrill, even for birds. Well, who knew?
Watch Peter’s report at peterspencer.org
Peter Spencer has 40 years experience as a Political Correspondent in Westminster, working with London Broadcasting and Sky News. For more of his fascinating musings on the turbulent political landscape, follow him on Facebook & Twitter.