Rarely has the air in Westminster felt more heavily laced with unreality. Even as epoch-making decisions are being made and maybe unmade by MPs and peers, the spectre of war somehow makes all their efforts seem trivial. But, as our Political Correspondent Peter Spencer reports, keep calm and carry on is the only option. For now. The word ‘existential’ gets bandied about a bit too freely these days. But, let’s get real, the very possibility of World War Three breaking out is a biggie.
And feeding The Donald into the mix of Israelis and Iranians squaring up to one another makes the notion of the Three Ugly Sisters seem rather sweet, and pleasantly predictable. But if, and mercifully this is an extremely large if, if Trump were to opt for trying to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities into oblivion our Prime Minister would face a defining dilemma.
Ask anyone what they remember about Tony Blair. The wars he fought to protect oppressed peoples? His massive boost to health and education spending? His ending of The Troubles in Northern Ireland?
None of the above, in nearly every case. It was his going along with President George Bush’s invasion of Iraq, on the erroneous premise that Saddam Hussain had Weapons of Mass Destruction. Maybe nukes then.
This single decision tore the Labour party apart and set the Blair legacy in stone. But now, here we are again. The only way Trump could smash the Iranian bunkers would be by using the sort of big bombers that would have to take off from British bases in the Chagos Islands.
To do that he’d need our permission. Meaning Keir Starmer wouldn’t be able to just sit on the sidelines. He’d have no choice but to either tell the Orange Man to do one, and thus risk wrecking the UK/US trade deal he’s just so painstakingly sewn up. Or be up to his eyeballs in the conflict and maybe wreck himself in the process.
Little wonder his Foreign Secretary is whirling around like a dervish trying to get all sides to stay cool and not let everything
spiral out of control. Life, meanwhile, goes on. As does death, of course. But Friday’s historic commons vote on the assisted dying bill did pave the way for allowing people who’re terminally ill to at least choose how and when it should happen.
Even though the polls indicate that three-quarters of us back the idea it was a relatively close call. And now that it’s heading to the House of Lords there could be further upsets. But it is one huge step closer to becoming law.
Same applies to another immensely significant piece of legislation that got the go-ahead last week. Decriminalising abortion. Yes, it has been legal for over half a century, but only within specific constraints. And the big change working its way through Parliament will knock out bits dating from the Victorian era that could still put women behind bars. The obvious examples being terminating a pregnancy outside the prescribed time limit, or even buying the requisite pills online.
You can’t be too careful about laws that never got repealed, even if you’re an MP. After all, the 1313 Act of The Statute states quite specifically that they’re not allowed to wear armour inside the building. Daresay plenty of them would like to right now, given the battle royal that’s shaping up over welfare reform.
Ministers insist that cuts of six billion pounds are a must – to stop nearly a tenth of young people not working or being taught anything. And a similar proportion of adults claiming health or disability benefits.
Keir Starmer’s point is that this is a moral crusade. To entice as many people as possible away from just falling back on the state, and helping them instead to fend for themselves if humanly possible.
But, given that a couple of million people will lose out, and some will be totally shafted, the government’s facing far and away its biggest backbench rebellion to date. So big in fact that notwithstanding its massive majority it could, almost inconceivably, actually lose when the package is put to the vote in a couple of weeks or so.
It’s down to the parliamentary enforcers then, that’s to say the whips, to lash the rebels into line. Which makes it all the more unfortunate that the first person to break ranks and quit was, er, one of the whips.
But there may be more, plenty more, where that came from. Right up to ministerial level. It’s been suggested that getting on for half of all Labour MPs are at very least unhappy about the plan, so the divide and rule operation is seriously having its work cut out. And, forget carrots, it’s all about sticks. If you decide you’re washing your hair, or have to be present at your local Morris Dancing championship or something on the day in question, then you’ll never get promoted as long as Starmer’s in charge.
And if you dare go beyond abstaining and actually vote against then it’s goodbye from us. And goodbye to you, chum. Basically, you can sling your hook. Has to be said, mind, that this is a relatively high-risk strategy on the government’s part. OK, they do have more than three times as many MPs as the Tories. But they could still do without losing a chunk of them.
Longer term, meanwhile, ministers are still divvying out who’re the winners as well as losers now that they’ve figured out how much they’d like to spend, and on whom, between now and the next election.
Bad but astonishingly not astonishing news for folk in the north – there’s yet another delay to the opening of the already pared down spangly new railway originally meant to join them up with everywhere else.
The High Speed Two link, probably better renamed Slowcoach And Waiting, has been beset for years with delays and cost overruns. The Times Chief Business Commentator Alistair Osborne’s take is harsh but fair: ‘Not all projects bring cost-effective growth. At least HS2 shows how not to do it.’
But potentially far better news for those same folk comes in the form of a rejigging of the formula for shelling out money from Whitehall to town halls. Which adds up to about half of what they’ve got to play with.
The government’s plan is to divert more cash in the direction of deprived areas, and make up the shortfall by giving less of it to already reasonably well-off places in London and the south east.
All of which, cynics might say, is Labour’s way of sucking up to voters in the sort of left-behind places that Reform’s Nigel Farage has his eye on. And the fact that it’s the brainchild of Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner leads us neatly on to another story about the symbiosis, hostile or otherwise, between these two.
It seems that a naughty-naughty dating site, aptly named Illicit Encounters, held a poll of Britain’s sexiest politicians. And, you’ve guessed it, he topped the boy bit, and she the girl gang. What’s that about politics being showbusiness for ugly people? Only a cynic would dream such a thing.
Watch Peter’s report at peterspencer.org
Peter Spencer has 40 years experience as a Political Correspondent in Westminster, working with London Broadcasting and Sky News. For more of his fascinating musings on the turbulent political landscape, follow him on Facebook & Twitter.