As the results tumbled in and Labour’s plight looked grimmer and grimmer, it can’t fail to have crossed the Prime Minister’s mind to quit the field and invite others to try their luck. Though finding a replacement would still be a messy affair, it’d be a lot less so than a campaign to unseat him. But, as our Political Correspondent Peter Spencer reports, as long as all sides keep schtum this remains a story without a top line.
At least the rest of it falls into place fairly tidily. Reform leader Nigel Farage had a point when he said that Thursday’s voting was: ‘The single most important event between now and the general election.’
Certainly his party’s slogan, ‘vote Reform, get Starmer out’, does seem to have resonated with the public and kicked the tender scab right off Labour’s shin.
Also quite a clever trick, easing the focus away from Farage himself, as his chumminess with the clown in the White House hasn’t played all that well with anyone.
That said, now that millions of folk have had their say our Nige does have plenty of reason to feel smug.
All very well people telling pollsters which way they’d swing if they had their chance. Different altogether when they swapped words for deeds, via the ballot boxes.
This means it’s no longer a matter of commentators stroking their chins or knowingly tapping the sides of their noses, but fact. Pure and simple.
Also a two-edged sword, mind. With the old two-party Labour and Tory hegemony now officially consigned to the dustbin, at least for the foreseeable, the new kids on the block will have to prove they’re up to the job.
Worth remembering that only a couple of years ago Labour got elected on a landslide, then, within months, watched its popularity plummet.
The obvious inference being that the electorate had had enough of the Tories struggling with a threadbare British economy for so long, only to find that Labour didn’t have a magic bullet either. What a surprise – not.
As to what the turquoise tribe has to offer to top either of them, answers come there none. Or at least in pitifully small numbers. The Farage formula is more a matter of vibe than verifiable policies.
‘The rest of them are rubbish. We’ll do better.’ Yerright. Given that that tactic failed so spectacularly for Labour, it’s not hard to scroll forward to 2030 and picture poor Nigel every bit as unpopular as Keir is now.
Of course the Reformers that’ve just got their hands on large chunks of the country won’t be controlling anything beyond their own individual fiefdoms. But they’ll still be expected to deliver, and be held accountable by the people who chose them.
They’ll also be under media scrutiny as never before. In spite of their consistent poll rating way ahead of the other parties their mettle wasn’t really being put to the test.
Yes, stories emerged here and there about the unspeakable attitudes of some of their councillors, and things that Farage himself is alleged to have said and done in the past have raised eyebrows at various times.
But that’s nothing next to what’s on the way. Given that he really has suddenly become a plausible candidate to be the country’s Prime Minister in a couple of years or so he can expect the kind of grief that Starmer gets. On a daily basis.
So far it’s been largely alternative media sites like Byline Times that’ve really homed in on him, though they’ve had a pretty hefty charge sheet.
For example, his closest aide got banged up for ten-and-a-half years for spying for the Russians. Then there’s his own five million tax-free gift from a crypto baron. Not to mention his alleged extreme racism while he was at Dulwich college.
None of this is new. But the old saying in the business rings true here, news is not what happens but what is reported. Safe to assume much of the mainstream media will be bigging up this sort of stuff in future.
Another old hacks’ line also heaves into view. In politics nothing is ever true until it is officially denied.
This is relevant because both Reform and the Tories have endlessly sworn that they’ll never form any kind of alliance, ever. Actually, for ‘ever’ read ‘up until now’.
The votes cast on Thursday will inevitably mean movers and shakers in areas that are now under no overall control will have no choice but to work together. Cue a lot of indigestion as so many of them will have to eat so many words.
Naturally the Greens too will get squeezed into this untidy picture in a fair few places. Also, their leader Zack Polanski can look forward, uncomfortably, to a fair bit more scrutiny than he’s used to.
Allegations about his colourful past and path into politics have come under the spotlight of late. But again, that’s nothing to what’s almost certainly on the way.
Meanwhile, back in the Labour wound-licking camp, Keir Starmer is busy devising a strategy to hang onto his job. Starting with a big set piece speech this coming week in which he’ll talk up the need for stability in the face of geopolitical turbulence.
He’ll also talk up the need for closer links with the European Union, not least in the field of security, given Donald Trump’s endless dissing of the NATO alliance that’s supposed to be protecting us from the Russians.
This is likely to play well with Labour members, up to a point, though many want him to cosy up much more closely with our European neighbours.
But talk of the party’s grassroots segues neatly into what all those top bods who’re after Starmer’s job are up against.
Goes without saying there are fevered conversations taking place right now among backers of the frontrunners – Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Health Secretary Wes Streeting.
However, they’re all horribly aware of how cumbersome the process is, in their arguably all too democratic party, of unseating a leader. And finding a new one.
Assuming Sir Keir doesn’t give himself the heave-ho they’ve got to persuade eighty-one MPs to trigger a contest by putting their name forward for the top job.
They’ve also got to be backed by at least five per cent of local parties or a handful of add-ons, largely trade unions.
If any of them even gets that far they then face a one-member-one-vote choosing process, meaning individual MPs have no more say than any ordinary party member.
Begs the question, within the loose confederation of warring tribes that Labour currently consists of, exactly which bit they need to be aiming at.
Then they have to go through the potentially very nasty process of vote after whittling-down vote until, finally, one of them manages fifty per cent support.
No telling how long the whole shebang can be expected to take, or what the punters are likely to make of the sight of them slagging one another off. Right up to the bitter end.
Hardly a bundle of laughs. Decidedly not a good look. And, has to be said, a bit of an echo of the Tories’ irritating habit of swapping leaders again and again.
Bearing in mind where that tactic didn’t get the last government, the devil-you-know argument might yet hold good for this one.
Or might not. Watch this space.
Watch Peter’s report at peterspencer.org
Peter Spencer has 40 years experience as a Political Correspondent in Westminster, working with London Broadcasting and Sky News. For more of his fascinating musings on the turbulent political landscape, follow him on Facebook & Twitter.